The problem with this proposal is that it will change dynamics a lot, and it's hard to predict how people will respond to those dynamics. In other words, what will the unintended consequences be?
Will people with non-great jobs around the basic income level keep going to work, or will they stay home and maintain their current living standard, or will they keep going to work, and roughly double it?
If many people choose to stay home, the cost of the services they provide will rise quite dramatically. This will have some hard to predict consequences across the economy. Some of the services will just be foregone with little tangible effect. Lawns will be mowed less often, street swept less often etc. Slightly worse impact on the economy will be when busy people decide to forego help, such as cleaners, babysitters, handymen etc. and do the job themselves, competing with either or both work and leisure time, which impacts either or both productivity and quality of life.
The most direct impact will be the rise in cost of services that can't be foregone or "taken in-house". Trash-collection, several bits of the retail supply chain etc. This will raise the cost of everything for everyone.
Also, besides these impacts, there's the human element. If a person makes the short-term decision to not work (and not studying or working on a startup or something similar), that person moves further and further away from ever participating in productive labour. I'm a bit old-fashioned on this, but I consider allowing people to go idle, long-term like that, is a grave failure of society. Many people who start in unpleasant low-wage jobs, don't end in them. Those who never start any job(/education/productive activity) at all have no chance of progressing beyond them.
But the worst is that taken together, the rise in prices will create a strong force towards getting rid of low income jobs, which will raise the bar significantly for those at the bottom, committing many of those willing to work to not work.
This is all speculation, and it's all dependent on the level to which low-income people will or won't chose to work.
"Will people with non-great jobs around the basic income level keep going to work, or will they stay home and maintain their current living standard, or will they keep going to work, and roughly double it?"
What would you do? Would you live a frugal life on basic, or would you use the extra to live a fuller life?
"Some of the services will just be foregone with little tangible effect. Lawns will be mowed less often, street swept less often etc. Slightly worse impact on the economy will be when busy people decide to forego help, such as cleaners, babysitters, handymen etc. and do the job themselves."
Speaking for myself, I have less than zero desire to mow my lawn, or sweep my street. I like having a mowed lawn and a swept street though, so if I suddenly had extra money, I would very likely pay someone to do those jobs, which currently aren't being done at my house. What would you do?
"If a person makes the short-term decision to not work (and not studying or working on a startup or something similar), that person moves further and further away from ever participating in productive labour. I'm a bit old-fashioned on this, but I consider allowing people to go idle, long-term like that, is a grave failure of society."
Why should anyone be forced to do work they hate for the sake of proving to those in power that they are not lazy? What would you do if you were unfortunate enough not have a college education and some skills that allow you to hold a good job, and your only option was working in fast food? Then suddenly you have this basic income, and you can afford to live without working that horrible job? Would you just start taking a lot of naps, or would you start pursuing hobbies and skills that you never had time or opportunity for before?
I know what I would do - I'd take a course on motorcycle repair, take up motorcycle racing, and travel to races. Maybe that's not valuable to society as a whole, but I would argue that it's relatively more valuable than fast food. Plus the intangible benefit of another person in the world who's happy and an expert in their field, rather than another unhappy, worthless minimum wage employee. What would you do? I'm asking you to trust other people to make decisions as good as you would make, rather than making assumptions on their behalf.
So you admit that you would change your behavior in response to such a policy. That's my point: People change their behaviors in response to changed incentives.
Now, since society is a very dynamic, it is extremely difficult to predict the consequences of such changes in dynamics, or even to ascribe causation afterwards. That, however is not an argument to throw caution to the wind.
> I'm asking you to trust other people to make decisions as good as you would make, rather than making assumptions on their behalf.
I find that very hard to do, as I have multiple, hard examples of people making poorer decisions than me. Mostly they consist of people asking my advice, then not following it, then failing.
By the way, by the same measure, I am guilty of making poorer choices than other people as well, it's not a linear ranking.
All good points. But that's the genius of it. Nobody knows what will happen. And what will happen will be affected by untold numbers of variables. Right now if you go to visit the Swiss you'll immediately notice how expensive everything is. Every. Single. Thing. I think it's absolutely the case that those prices will rise. With more disposable income, producers will start hiking their prices to capture more of it. Runaway inflation. As for what people will do. I think that's a bit less obvious. I'm sure there are those that will go on permanent holiday. How the economy will fill low wage/skill jobs is an open question. Will they have to import a 'serf' class? Non citizens who don't get payouts who actually have to work to live? Very exciting to see it all play out indeed. My gut is that this will be a net negative.
"Many people who start in unpleasant low-wage jobs, don't end in them."
LOL that's not a problem in the country I live in (USA). Perhaps you're Swiss or live in some country where statistically significant upward mobility is possible, in which case, in your country, it could be an issue. Lack of class migration, other than downward of course, is a pretty significant problem other than anecdotally in the USA.
Other than that localization issue, a pretty good post but I'd factor in import goods, especially products that appeal to poor people. Put bluntly I think retailers would collect a lot of the money selling Chinese televisions and the like. And getting that support from retailers is likely to be critical to getting the support to implement this thing. So there would be certain balance of trade issues relating to higher imports.
Coming from an academic world, the primary currency in my network is the number of publications/citations. Faculty/postdocs/Phd's salary in most universities are not worth bragging about; but it is not uncommon for people to put in regular 60+ hours week to get that extra publication so that you can stay ahead of the curve ( or at-least catch up )to your peers. From my perspective ( of course the domain bias exist) human ego is as powerful a motivator ( and we invariably have a desire to be ahead of people in our immediate network! ).
The fact that Switzerland is a really rich country, with the wealth distributed not so unfairly, makes this experiment even more interesting ( compared to the communist style takeover which happened in past in then poor nations including Russia or China).
To summarize, one of the things that makes capitalism work is competition; and money necessarily is not the only thing ( and might not be the primary thing) that we compete for!
One thing your analysis leaves out is sex. While I refute the idea that the only thing women/men consider when choosing a partner, money is a factor. So let's say you're a girl and two guys want to go out with you. They're both equally attractive, equally funny/smart. One is living frugally on basic income with roommates, the other has a nice apartment that he pays for with extra income earned from holding a job.
The guy with the apartment has certain advantages that may not appeal to all women, but certainly to some.
My point is that there is motivation to earn more than your peers, especially for young people.
One guy has time to go walk in the park on weekday afternoons and can go out to a bar or to a show any night of the week, while the other is at work all day and can only do late nights on the weekend. One guy can lounge in bed then take you to brunch, the other has to leave for work at 7am. One guy has to schedule his vacation a month in advance, the other can be spontaneous to hop on a train somewhere today.
My point is that there is motivation to have more free-time than your peers, especially for young people.
I imagine a basic income would change the social paradigm of full-time employment quite significantly. Without being so dependent on a job, more bargaining power would be on the side of the employee, so I presume there'd be a huge rise in part-time employment, and workers' liberties. So most of the restrictions you're associating with employment would potentially be much less repressive than they are today.
Can't hop on a train without money. Can't stay overnight at a nice hotel without money. Can't buy a plane ticket spontaneously without money. Can't pay for your girlfriend's ticket without money. Can't buy too much beer without money -- especially in expensive cities where young people like to aggregate.
Yet the penniless artist is not exactly socially ostracised. Even in the mentioned expensive cities.
Reality is that people tend to stay inside their bubbles and bubbles are self-reinforcing. The penniless artist isn't going to take a job at McDonald's to be able to stay at a nice hotel with their Wall Street romance. Rather, two equally penniless artists are going to go on a free/cheap picnic in a park and reinforce each other's beliefs that this is much nicer and more "real" than the more expensive alternatives.
True. Seems like a basic income would be good for penniless artists as they'd have more time to perfect their craft. It would not be good for people who just want to spend their time watching tv.
"Will people..." "If many people..." "If a person...."
Who are these people? Are they not you?
If they're not you, what makes them different from you?
If they are you, what makes you think you'd do those things?
They're potentially, halfway me in a world without celebrated computer programmers. I have struggled immensely with being a "slow starter", with self-motivation. I would have been an even slower starter in a world where I couldn't do my job alone, at home and late at night.
Come to think of it, one of my early learning-moments was pursuing a total dead-beat of a customer that I should have seen from a million miles away would never pay up, and incurring debt while I did. Having the till shut in my face (figuratively) at the bank was the push I need to face reality, cut my losses and move on to more productive work.
I totally see myself becoming an underperforming slacker pursuing dead-end/get-rich-quick "business" ideas. I have a couple of distinct kicks in the face to thank for being where I am today, and while not all being directly financial kicks (I'm privileged enough to never had to worry about missing a meal or not sleeping in my own room), is was definitely an element in all of them.
Will people with non-great jobs around the basic income level keep going to work, or will they stay home and maintain their current living standard, or will they keep going to work, and roughly double it?
If many people choose to stay home, the cost of the services they provide will rise quite dramatically. This will have some hard to predict consequences across the economy. Some of the services will just be foregone with little tangible effect. Lawns will be mowed less often, street swept less often etc. Slightly worse impact on the economy will be when busy people decide to forego help, such as cleaners, babysitters, handymen etc. and do the job themselves, competing with either or both work and leisure time, which impacts either or both productivity and quality of life.
The most direct impact will be the rise in cost of services that can't be foregone or "taken in-house". Trash-collection, several bits of the retail supply chain etc. This will raise the cost of everything for everyone.
Also, besides these impacts, there's the human element. If a person makes the short-term decision to not work (and not studying or working on a startup or something similar), that person moves further and further away from ever participating in productive labour. I'm a bit old-fashioned on this, but I consider allowing people to go idle, long-term like that, is a grave failure of society. Many people who start in unpleasant low-wage jobs, don't end in them. Those who never start any job(/education/productive activity) at all have no chance of progressing beyond them.
But the worst is that taken together, the rise in prices will create a strong force towards getting rid of low income jobs, which will raise the bar significantly for those at the bottom, committing many of those willing to work to not work.
This is all speculation, and it's all dependent on the level to which low-income people will or won't chose to work.