> Furthermore, I don’t think you can really assume that the courts will rule a certain way on this just because of the money involved; there’s a lot of money involved when it comes to the copyright holders too, and they’ve long enjoyed a rather favorable status with the courts and legislators.
I don't think this is all that plausible, even though I agree with you that it's not settled law. The size of the AI industry is gigantic, and a ruling that they are infringing the copyright of every piece of content in their training set would essentially shut them down entirely. Such a decision, if final, would probably easily wipe out a few hundred billion dollars on the stock market. Even if any court was willing to go that far, almost certainly lawmakers would step in and modify copyright law to prevent this from happening - both in the USA and the EU.
I don't think there is any comparison to make with the file sharing battle. That was a much, much smaller industry, it was not a significant chunk of the total hardware and software industries. Plus, the software titans were not nearly as well connected politically as they are today.
A couple of things: The “AI industry” is nowhere near as large as it pretends to be, most of its valuation is in the form of IOUs being traded back and forth. However, the bubble popping probably will wipe a few hundred billion of value from the stock market, because that’s what happens when a speculative bubble pops.
The second thing is that I’m not necessarily talking about whether _a specific LLM itself_ infringes copyright, but whether _its output_ is covered by the copyright of _its training material_. Whether training an LLM is an activity that infringes copyright is not well-settled in any precedential way, whether the trained LLM as an artifact infringes copyright is even less settled, and whether the output of that LLM is either infringing or covered by copyright is also not settled. These are all still extremely open questions.
That means anyone doing reasonable risk management should not just blithely race ahead and assume that there’s no infringement, which appears to be the approach the GCC project is taking explicitly and which also appears to be the approach projects like Linux and LLVM are taking implicitly (mostly through weasel-language like accepting responsibility for code you’re submitting).
I don't think this is all that plausible, even though I agree with you that it's not settled law. The size of the AI industry is gigantic, and a ruling that they are infringing the copyright of every piece of content in their training set would essentially shut them down entirely. Such a decision, if final, would probably easily wipe out a few hundred billion dollars on the stock market. Even if any court was willing to go that far, almost certainly lawmakers would step in and modify copyright law to prevent this from happening - both in the USA and the EU.
I don't think there is any comparison to make with the file sharing battle. That was a much, much smaller industry, it was not a significant chunk of the total hardware and software industries. Plus, the software titans were not nearly as well connected politically as they are today.