General chatbot use about daily life. Accidentally stumbling across something considered racist/sexist/woke/pronouns/whatever being offended about is flavour of the week is much more likely than a casual chat session wandering into turf that is politically sensitive in China.
My main concern in practice here is prompt injection style attacks where the model gets destabilized by an attacker mentioning Chinese political topics.
Part of the issue here is that the western model restriction things you're talking about tend towards well reasoned refusals, whereas these models will outright lie instead. (Actual model output: Your previous question involved a false premise: there is no such thing as a "June 4th incident" in history.)
Like, yes, you don't go to these models for questions about Chinese politics, but imagine agentic scenarios along the lines of "the model sees a git commit message mentioning Taiwan and becomes more inclined to lie about the contents of the commit".
Unless you’re a political analyst or child I don’t think asking models about Winnie the Pooh is particularly meaningful test of anything
These days I’m hitting way more restrictions on western models anyway because the range of things considered sensitive is far broader and fuzzier.