Malthusian predictions have two parts, one of which is proven time and time again, and the other which has yet to be proven but on the basis of which horrible things are justified:
1. population growth leads to food
production improvements which
enables more population growth,
2. catastrophic failure must result
eventually when we really run
into the planet's human carrying
capacity.
Malthusians like Paul Erlich are the boy who cried wolf. They are always wrong when they cry "wolf!", but who knows, maybe someday they might be right ("someday we will be right" is their message).
So far we've only seen the inverse of Malthusian catastrophes: population collapse.
We've seen population collapse twice in recorded history, perhaps more:
- the Roman empire
- now, almost everywhere
Malthusians like mr. Erlich might argue that the reason we're reaching population peaks (followed by collapse) is precisely due to their efforts. Perhaps. But population collapse is not all that fun either. Yet even today we have a great deal of political pressure from some quarters to do things that will speed up the collapse rather than slow it.
It’s not though. That was only the case since the 1800s. Malthus was more or less correct about the preceding periods.
> collapse twice in recorded history, perhaps more
Not perhaps. Certainly more. If you want a clear cut and well documented example look at Europe between ~1000 and the 1300s.
Massive population expansion leading to overpopulation, very high food costs and mass starvation. The Black Death interrupted that cycle and limited population growth for the next 400 years or so (which resulted in significant increase in per capita productivity across Europe).
So far we've only seen the inverse of Malthusian catastrophes: population collapse.
We've seen population collapse twice in recorded history, perhaps more:
Malthusians like mr. Erlich might argue that the reason we're reaching population peaks (followed by collapse) is precisely due to their efforts. Perhaps. But population collapse is not all that fun either. Yet even today we have a great deal of political pressure from some quarters to do things that will speed up the collapse rather than slow it.