The rates being this high actually casts doubt on the study. It’s very very implausible, and suggests almost surely a selection bias in the sample towards a population much more likely to have contracted it.
Actually in reading closer and seeing the data is collected at big box & grocery stores, it’s almost surely very biased.
This cohort would skew younger and wealthier, which correlates with better preexisting health and fewer risk factors, and would exclude populations who systematically left the city, or who have known heightened risk factors.
Comparing the death rate overall with the infection rate of this skewed sample would be likely to greatly underestimate the actual death rate of the virus.
This weekend San Francisco plans to do a hard test of about 6000 people in a couple of square blocks of the Mission district. They are going door to door to encourage people to get tested.
Still biased but probably better than anything so far.
I wonder about that. They are trying to test a neighborhood they think is most effected. One wonders if it's possible to follow up and retest positives to exclude false one.
Suspect the Bay Area is moving towards what Korea is doing. Intense testing and contact tracing.
Friend who works at a biomedical corp says scuttlebutt is they're separating their workforce into groups based on critical need and how well they can work remotely. Workers like him not expected to return to work onsite until next year.
Retesting positives won't work because we don't know whether it's independent. If there's some rare common cold coronavirus antibodies that some of the population has, that set off the test, they'll still have them later.
Not sure how well having the Bay Area do one thing, and large chunks of the rest of the country dash to herd immunity is going to work.
A little, but not anything close to what we consider normalcy. And you get to maintain them forever, or until a vaccine arrives.
Of course, our case count is so high right now. If you get Rt down to a miraculous 0.5, it's like 180 days before you can get to the point where contact tracing is effective. And you probably don't achieve an Rt of 0.5.
