Exactly. Removing support for h.264 + the VIDEO tag from Chrome will accomplish nothing more than what Firefox accomplished a year ago when they said that they wouldn't support h.264 in the first place. A year later and no one is serving Theora over the VIDEO tag - instead there are just a lot of Firefox users viewing h.264 in FLV containers in Flash. Chrome's stand against h.264 will convince precisely 0 (ZERO) video websites to double their CPU budget by double-encoding to h.264 AND VP8.

It's what Google does with Youtube that could really change something. If they stop serving h.264 from Youtube, then we'll all be switching to WebM/VP8.